In the TRNC, fuel prices are expected to gradually fall after the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

In the TRNC, close attention is being paid to the situation on the global energy market after the start of talks between the US and Iran on restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s key oil supply routes.

Against the backdrop of expectations that the strait may reopen, global oil prices have already begun to decline. Brent has fallen to around $99 per barrel, while US crude WTI has lost nearly 5%, dropping to $92.

For the TRNC, whose economy directly depends on imported fuel and fluctuations in the Turkish lira, the development of the situation is of particular importance. Experts note that the stabilization of oil supplies could partially ease pressure on the prices of petrol, diesel fuel and electricity.

According to analysts’ estimates, if the Strait of Hormuz really begins to operate at full capacity as early as the beginning of June, residents of EU countries could see the first price changes at gas stations within 2–4 weeks. This is because the retail market does not react to oil prices immediately — existing fuel stocks are used first, and previously concluded contracts are fulfilled.

In the TRNC, according to forecasts, price reductions may begin closer to the second half of June or at the beginning of July. However, experts emphasize that a sharp drop in fuel prices should not be expected.

The main factors that will continue to keep prices at a high level remain instability in the Middle East, high transportation costs and the weakness of the Turkish lira, which directly affects the cost of imports to the TRNC.

Economists also warn that any new escalation in the region could once again trigger a surge in oil prices and nullify current expectations of lower fuel costs.

In the TRNC, it is emphasized that the region’s energy dependence makes the issue of oil prices not only an economic factor, but also a social one, directly affecting the cost of living for the population.