Oil prices correct, but cheap fuel in Cyprus not yet expected

Global oil prices have shown a slight decrease after a prolonged rise, yet the market situation remains tense and unstable.

West Texas Intermediate futures dropped by 0.44% to $99.49 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose slightly to $111.38. The correction is linked to the United Arab Emirates' decision to exit OPEC, which strengthened expectations of an increased oil supply in the future.

Nevertheless, analysts warn that rapid changes should not be expected. The main factor remains the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil and gas supplies pass. Shipping restrictions and sanctions pressure continue to constrain the market.

When fuel prices will drop in Cyprus

For Cyprus, this means that no significant reduction in fuel prices is expected in the near future. Even despite the current correction, oil costs remain at a high level.

According to estimates, a price drop at gas stations is possible:

• no earlier than mid-to-late summer 2026,
• and only provided that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes and production increases following the UAE's exit from OPEC.

At the same time, the expected effect will be limited — approximately by 3–7%, as the final price is also influenced by taxes, logistics, and stocks purchased at higher prices.

Additional pressure on the market is exerted by the reduction of oil reserves in the US and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Under these conditions, even a short-term drop in quotes does not guarantee a rapid reduction in fuel costs for consumers.

Thus, drivers in Cyprus should prepare for high prices to persist in the coming months, and any potential relief will be gradual and dependent on the development of the situation in the Middle East.