Oil Falls Amid U.S.-Iran Talks: When Fuel Could Get Cheaper in Cyprus and the EU

Global oil prices have started to decline amid talks between the United States and Iran on the possible restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for global oil supplies.

On Sunday, the price of Brent crude fell by about 1.5% — to $99 per barrel, while American light crude WTI dropped by almost 5%, to $92. Investors attribute this to expectations that the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil supplies pass, could reopen.

The strait has remained virtually blocked since the end of February, after the start of the military conflict in the region. According to analysts, if the talks end successfully, transit could be partially restored as early as the beginning of June.

JPMorgan experts believe that if the strait reopens, oil prices will stabilize at around $97 per barrel through the end of 2026. This could lead to a gradual decline in fuel prices in Europe and Cyprus.

According to energy analysts, residents of EU countries may see the first drop in gasoline and diesel prices 2–4 weeks after supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are restored. Usually, the retail market reacts to changes in oil prices with a certain delay because of fuel inventories and contract deliveries.

In Cyprus, price reductions could begin in the second half of June or in early July, if the geopolitical situation does not worsen again. However, experts warn that a sharp drop should not be expected: high transportation costs and continued tensions in the Middle East will keep exerting pressure on the market.

Meanwhile, the price surge has already hit consumers hard. In the United States, this Memorial Day weekend was the most expensive in the past four years: the average gasoline price reached $4.51 per gallon, more than 50% above the level before the start of the conflict.

Economists note that further price trends will depend directly on the stability of oil supplies and the outcome of negotiations between Washington and Tehran.